H1N1 Panic

Let's keep things in perspective, shall we? Yes, there is a potentially deadly strain of swine flu spreading around the globe. No, it's not necessarily the end of the world.

First, the facts. As of Monday, 26 people are confirmed dead from swine flu according to the World Health Organization (WHO) – 25 in Mexico and one in the United States. Around the world, 985 cases of the flu have been confirmed, including 85 in Canada. Others in Mexico (the reported numbers range from 2,500 to 8,000) are showing flu-like symptoms.

But even if these numbers stand up, they, too, should be seen in context. All influenza is potentially deadly. In a normal year, between 6,500 and 7,500 Mexicans die from pneumonia-like diseases. According to the Canadian Medical Association Journal, the flu kills up to 2,500 Canadians and about 36,000 Americans annually. Worldwide, the number of deaths attributed to the flu each year is between 250,000 and 500,000.

So, yes, there have been deaths from this flu variant, and there will almost certainly be more. But, relatively speaking, we're still in the realm of low numbers. What's more telling still is that most who contracted this strain of the virus have recovered quickly.

A new flu outbreak always raises memories of the epidemic of 1918, when the so-called Spanish flu killed up to 50 million people worldwide, including an estimated 45,000 in Canada. But history provides other examples as well. The most telling comparison, I think, is the great swine flu panic of 1976. That one began when an army recruit died after contracting a mysterious strain of swine flu.

Politicians swung into action. Faced with the possibility of another 1918-style pandemic, then-U.S. President Gerald Ford promised to inoculate every American citizen with vaccine. The Canadian government followed suit, with the condition that, because of the costs involved, it would be able to inoculate only some. Throughout 1976, the swine flu story went from fear to complete farce. The announcement of the country's first swine flu death turned out to be false, based on the coroner's report showing the person had never been infected.

Ontario's government, in the end, decided to offer the vaccine to anyone who wanted it. By December of that year, it was reported that municipal clinics set up to offer free flu shots were shutting down for lack of customers, which perhaps was just as well; when several Americans developed a mysterious and deadly paralysis after being inoculated, swine flu shots were abruptly suspended in both countries.

In the end, the only known death from the 1976 swine flu pandemic was the original army recruit. Everyone else who caught the bug recovered.

Granted, this recent outbreak is more significant than the outbreak of '76 and has affected more people. The governments are calling the virus a cause for concern but not alarm. Unfortunately, people don't listen to the government - they listen to the media, and the thoughts and opinions of "experts" should have been tempered in the media from the outset.

If you look at the big picture of under 1000 total cases worldwide, it doesn't really register as an epidemic to me. Thousands of people die of malaria daily, which seems a whole lot more significant than 26 over a period of a few weeks.

We also have to take into account how Mexico's infrastructure has impacted the death toll. Canadian and American health care systems may have their flaws, but they're far more advanced than what is in place in Mexico.

But, perhaps the most dangerous byproduct of this H1N1 virus is the undue strain all the panic is putting on health care systems all over the world. Just the fact that the name change was required is a great indication of how some people are reacting - assuming they will get sick from eating pork products, the catalyst for the name change. People without symptoms are clogging emergency rooms asking to be screened for swine flu, at the expense of people with real illness. In a CNN interview, the head of the WHO said that the level of fear and panic is unprecedented. "People think if they have a cough or cold, they're going to die."

Bottom line: sure, it's a bad flu. Yes, people will die. By all means, be vigilant and cancel your Mexican vacation. But is this a SARS-scale pandemic? Or something the media has latched onto and is, whether intentionally or not, scaring the world into a frenzy with their sensational headlines?

I've made my decision. And, while I don't plan on boarding a plane until this flu has passed, I also won't be running about town wearing a surgical mask.